Climate Change Affecting BBC Weather Computer

January 18, 2010

DailyMail.co.uk

A BBC weather forecaster has suggested that the Met Office’s super-computer has a ‘warm bias’ which has stopped it predicting bitterly cold spells like the one we have just endured.

Paul Hudson said the error may have crept into the computer’s climate model as a result of successive years of milder weather.

His claim was rejected by the Met Office but other experts said there could be flaws in the system, which was first developed 50 years ago.

In a blog, the BBC Look North presenter writes: ‘Clearly there is the rest of January and February to go, but such has been the intensity of the cold spell…it would take something remarkable for the Met Office’s forecast (of a mild winter) to be right.

‘It is also worth remembering that this comes off the back of the now infamous barbecue summer forecast.

‘Could the model, seemingly with an inability to predict colder seasons, have developed a warm bias, after such a long period of milder than average years?’

The Met Office produces its forecasts by feeding  information from sources, including satellites and weather stations, into a ‘climate model’. A set of complex equations then  predict weather changes.

Mr Hudson appears to be suggesting that data recorded over the past decade of warmer winters could be unduly influencing the computer’s calculations.

However, the Met Office denies this, saying ‘any small biases’ are automatically corrected before it issues seasonal forecasts.
Modern look: Laura Tobin gives tomorrow’s weather forecast using the 3D map created by Metra, who are the Met Office rivals for the next BBC contract

The rumpus comes as the BBC considers dropping the Met Office forecasts after almost 90 years.

The contract runs out in April and the broadcaster has been in talks with the New Zealand forecasters, Metra.

Again, accuracy is the issue, with the Met Office coming under severe criticism over the prediction of a barbeque summer last July. The UK suffered a washout.

And its forecast of a mild winter attracted derision as temperatures plunged to as low as -22C in parts of Britain.

A poll commissioned by the Sunday Times this weekend found that 74 per cent of people saying they believed forecasts were inaccurate.

However, the Met Office staff are still in line for a bonus, with a muted pot of £1m to share out.

Metra already produces graphics for the BBC including the 3D weather map that brough complaints when it was introduced in 2005.

A Metra source is quoted as telling the Sunday Times: ‘The BBC is not very happy with the service it has been getting from the Met Office, it thinks it’s too expensive. We have the ability to provide a bespoke service that will undercut it.

‘Because we already produce graphics we’ve got a foot in the door, so we’re optimistic.’

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Center of the Climategate Storm

December 15, 2009

Macleans.CA

By Colby Cosh

The private emails and logs leaked last month from the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia can’t tell us whether industrial activity is really heating the earth’s atmosphere and endangering civilization. But they have settled the identity of the Great Satan of climate science. Torontonian Stephen McIntyre, a gentle, persistent amateur who had no credentials in applied science before stepping into the global warming debate in 2003, is mentioned more than 100 times.

In the emails, leading climate researchers dismiss him as a capitalist hireling or a hapless “bozo,” and argue about the relative merits of ignoring him versus counterattacking him, even as others acknowledge that his criticisms have merit and imitate his use of the Web as a venue for hyper-detailed scientific discussion. At one point in 2005, CRU director Phil Jones, now under suspension, ponders the possibility that McIntyre might use U.K. freedom-of-information laws to obtain raw weather-station data compiled by the CRU. He grumbles: “I think I’ll delete the file rather than send to anyone.” The overall impression is that of 100 elephants stampeding in confusion and panic around a mouse.

The political stakes are now so high when it comes to the “Climategate” scandal, and motives are being questioned so loudly on both sides, that few are noticing the remarkable story at the heart of it all: a 62-year-old mining executive and squash enthusiast has, for better or worse, found his way into the centre of a major scientific melée—almost by accident—and been able to make legitimate contributions.

McIntyre first became notorious in 2003 for his statistical critique, co-authored with economist Ross McKitrick, of the “hockey stick graph” that showed global temperatures rocketing upward in the 20th century. The hockey stick, featured in the 2001 report by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, had a profound influence on policy worldwide, and played a starring role in presentations like Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth. The McIntyre-McKitrick critique called attention to uncertainties in its temperature reconstructions dating back before 1600, to certain problems with dendrochronology (the use of tree rings to estimate past temperatures), and to issues with the statistical calculations underlying the hockey stick. Some climatologists insist that the graph tells the same story when you correct for all this, but much of the critique is now accepted, and the hockey stick, whose weaknesses are better understood, has itself become a somewhat inconvenient distraction for climatologists and environmentalists.

Meanwhile, McIntyre, working alone, has gone on to score further critical points. In 2007, he caught a mistake in the reporting of U.S. surface temperatures by NASA’s Goddard Institute that was quickly acknowledged, with thanks, and corrected. (NASA’s gracious manner contrasts sharply with the attitudes displayed behind the scenes at the CRU.)

The truth is that McIntyre, 62, little resembles the caricature of a wild-eyed climate-change “denier.” He is scrupulous about focusing his criticism on statistical procedures and disclosure practices. He is polite to, and about, climate scientists. He refuses to make grand categorical statements of the “Global warming is just commie horse puckey” type, preferring to remain agnostic, and he discourages such talk on his website, Climate Audit.

When reached for an interview, he interrupts briefly to turn down a request to appear on BBC television about the exploding “Climategate” scandal. “Anything I say now would just be piling on,” he remarks, noting that he has no interest in helping the media stage a drama of personalities. Given the opportunity of a lifetime to gloat over those who referred to him as a “moron” and “Mr. I’m Not Entirely There In The Head,” he demurs.

Close observers of the climate wars recognize that the small group of scientists who first advanced the case for urgent concern over global warming were ill-prepared for the appearance of a critic like McIntyre. Spanish paleoclimatologist Eduardo Zorita of Germany’s GKSS Research Centre, who has clashed at times with both McIntyre and the climate-research elite, says that “in the realm of science, it doesn’t really matter by whom and why a study is criticized. It only counts whether or not the criticism is reasonably well-founded, is logical, and relevant for the final results.”

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Secret Files Show Rules for Mass Mind Control

November 25, 2009

Info Wars

Jurriaan Maessen

Hacked into by a person or persons unknown, the unearthed material out of the University of East Anglia’s Climate Research Unit’s main server reveals a 62 megabyte zip file confirming that which was already blatantly obvious, namely that the data has been fudged to convince unsuspecting audiences that ‘the debate is over’.

The intruded central computer was not only filled to the brim with obvious and attempted ostracizing of scientists who don’t blindly follow the leader, the files also reveal that the folks of the IPCC made use or considered making use of a disinformation campaign through a ‘communication agency’ called Futerra.

The agency describes itself as “the sustainability communications agency” and serves such global players as Shell, Microsoft, BBC, the UN Environment Programme, the UK government and the list goes on. The co-founder of Futerra, Ed Gillespie  explains:

“For brands to succeed in this new world order, they will have to become eco, ethical and wellness champions.”

The document included within the climategate treasure-chest is called ‘ Rules of the Game’ and shows deliberate deception on the part of this agency to ensure that the debate would indeed be perceived as being settled. When facts do not convince, they reasoned, let us appeal to emotions in order to get the job done.

Outlining the ‘rules of the game’ in regards to climate change communication strategies, Futerra considers these rules as a “first step to using sophisticated behaviour change modelling and comprehensive evidence from around the world to change attitudes towards climate change.”

“We need to think radically”, proclaim the authors, “and the Rules of the Game are a sign that future campaigns will not be “business as usual.””

First Rule as outlined by Futerra is called “Blowing away Myths”. Pressing the point that any company wishing to sell global warming must be cautious in using the fear-card:

“Fear can create apathy if individuals have no ‘agency’ to act upon the threat. Use fear with great caution.”

Arrogantly stating to “Forget the climate change detractors”, the document goes on to say that “Those who deny climate change science are irritating, but unimportant.” Futerra also stresses that “There is no ‘rational man’” and “Information can’t work alone.”

The second Rule all should abide by is “a new way of thinking”. “Once we’ve eliminated the myths”, the report goes on to say, “there is room for some new ideas.” These include:

Click here for full report

More Email Passwords Hacked

October 7, 2009

Mail Online

By Kate Loveys and Graham Smith

The massive security breach that led to millions of Hotmail customers being advised to change their passwords has now spread to users of email services including Gmail and Yahoo! Mail.

Up to 21million people and businesses who use the Hotmail service in the UK were warned they are potentially at risk of being defrauded after passwords were acquired illegally.

Around 10,000 passwords were obtained by hackers who created a fake website identical to Hotmail’s to fool users into entering their email address and password in a ‘phishing’ scam.

‘Phishing’ scams involve using false websites to lure people into revealing important data such as bank account details, login names or passwords.

Now the BBC claims that another list of over 30,000 email addresses and passwords is circulating, which contains the details for Gmail, Yahoo! Mail, AOL, Comcast and Earthlink accounts.

The latest list was posted on Pastebin.com, the same website to which the Hotmail list was originally uploaded.

How to avoid being defrauded

- Change your passwords every 90 days

- Use different passwords for various internet log-ins

- Do not open unsolicited email attachments and links

The site, which is intended for web developers to share code, has since been taken down for maintenance.

Hotmail’s list of users was posted anonymously on to Pastebin.com on October 1. The list was reported by technology blog Neowin.

It is feared that the information could be used by fraudsters to access email accounts and steal personal information such as credit card account details.

A spokesman for Google, which runs Gmail, said: ‘We recently became aware of an industry-wide phishing scheme through which hackers gained user credentials for web-based mail accounts including Gmail account.

‘As soon as we learned of the attack, we forced password resets on the affected accounts. We will continue to force password resets on additional accounts when we become aware of them.’

The firm stressed that the scam was ‘not a breach of Gmail security’ but rather ‘a scam to get users to give away their personal information to hackers’.

A spokesman for the Metropolitan Police said: ‘We advise people to take a commonsense approach and change their password.

‘It is early days but we have yet to receive reports of fraud linked to this breach.’

A Microsoft spokesman added: ‘We are aware that some Windows Live Hotmail customers’ credentials were acquired illegally and exposed on a website.

‘Upon learning of the issue, we immediately requested that the credentials be removed and launched an investigation to determine the impact to customers.

‘We are working diligently to help customers regain control of their accounts.’

Some of the accounts appear to be old, unused or fake. Other addresses on the list include Comcast and Earthlink accounts.

A spokesperson for Yahoo urged consumers to ‘take measures to secure their accounts whenever possible, including changing their passwords’.

Click here for the full report.