September 9, 2010
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows that 23% of the nation’s voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Forty-seven percent (47%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -24 (see trends).
The Presidential Approval Index is calculated by subtracting the number who Strongly Disapprove from the number who Strongly Approve. It is updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update). Updates are also available on Twitter and Facebook.
Overall, 41% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president’s performance. Fifty-eight percent (58%) disapprove.
Today’s Approval Index rating is the lowest yet recorded for this president. Overall Job Approval matches the lowest recorded number, and the number who Strongly Disapprove matches the highest yet recorded.
President Obama continues to earn Approval from 74% of Democrats. However, 88% of Republicans disapprove. So do 63% of those not affilated with either major political party. Platinum Members can see additional demographic breakdowns and additional measures of the president’s performance on the Rasmussen Reports By the Numbers page.
Five days from now, Harper Collins will release a new book by Scott Rasmussen and Doug Schoen addressing the broad discontent roiling the political landscape this year. MAD AS HELL: How the Tea Party Movement is Fundamentally Remaking Our Two-Party System can be pre-ordered at Amazon.com, Barnes and Noble, Borders, and other outlets.
Sixty-two percent (62%) believe that no matter how bad things are, Congress can always make it worse.
The Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Balance of Power shows Democrats with a 48-45 advantage while seven races remain Toss-Ups (California, Colorado, Illinois, Nevada, Ohio Washington, and Wisconsin). Republicans hold a twelve-point advantage on the Generic Congressional Ballot.
The Rasmussen Reports Gubernatorial Scorecard projects 26 Governorships for the GOP, 16 for the Democrats, and eight Toss-Ups (California, Florida, Illinois, Maryland, New Mexico, Oregon, Vermont, and Wisconsin). Later today, new numbers will be released on the Arizona Governor’s race.
Just 29% believe the nation is generally heading in the right direction. Most say Congress should wait until after Election Day–and after the lame duck session–to consider major legislation.
The number of Republicans in the nation grew by two percentage points over the past month while the number of Democrats slipped a bit. As a result, the GOP has closed the partisan gap to the smallest margin in five years.
A Wall Street Journal profile calls Scott Rasmussen “America’s Insurgent Pollster.”
In a book released earlier this year, Scott observed that, “The gap between Americans who want to govern themselves and politicians who want to rule over them may be as big today as the gap between the colonies and England during the 18th century.” In Search of Self-Governance is available at Rasmussen Reports and Amazon.com.
The Rasmussen Reports Media Meter shows that media coverage of President Obama has been 50% positive over the past week. Platinum Members can review coverage of the president by individual major media outlets.
If you’d like Scott to speak at your conference or event, contact Premiere Speakers Bureau.
Scott has published several recent Wall Street Journal columns including “Why Obama Can’t Move the Health Care Numbers” and how Obama won the White House by campaigning like Ronald Reagan. He has also written an overview of the health care reform debate, a look at how President Obama is losing independent voters, and was the first to note the decline in the president’s approval ratings.
You can also learn about Scott’s favorite place on earth and his time working with hockey legend Gordie Howe.
It is important to remember that the Rasmussen Reports job approval ratings are based upon a sample of likely voters. Some other firms base their approval ratings on samples of all adults. President Obama’s numbers are always several points higher in a poll of adults rather than likely voters. That’s because some of the president’s most enthusiastic supporters, such as young adults, are less likely to turn out to vote. It is also important to check the details of question wording when comparing approval ratings from different firms.
Rasmussen Reports has been a pioneer in the use of automated telephone polling techniques, but many other firms still utilize their own operator-assisted technology (see methodology). Pollsters for Presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton have cited our “unchallenged record for both integrity and accuracy.”
The Pew Center noted that Rasmussen Reports beat traditional media in covering Scott Brown’s upset win in Massachusetts earlier this year: “It was polling-not journalistic reporting-that caught the wave in the race to succeed Massachusetts Senator Edward M. Kennedy.” Rasmussen Reports was also the first to show Joe Sestak catching Arlen Specter in the Pennsylvania Democratic Primary race this year.
In the 2009 New Jersey Governor’s race, automated polls tended to be more accurate than operator-assisted polling techniques. On reviewing the state polling results from 2009, Mickey Kaus offered this assessment, “If you have a choice between Rasmussen and, say, the prestigious N.Y. Times, go with Rasmussen!”
In 2008, Obama won 53%-46% and our final poll showed Obama winning 52% to 46%. While we were pleased with the final result, Rasmussen Reports was especially pleased with the stability of our results. On every single day for the last six weeks of the campaign, our daily tracking showed Obama with a stable and solid lead attracting more than 50% of the vote.
We also have provided a summary of our 2008 state-by-state presidential results for your review.
In 2004 George W. Bush received 50.7% of the vote while John Kerry earned 48.3%. Rasmussen Reports polling projected that Bush would win 50.2% to 48.5%. We were the only firm to project both candidates’ totals within half a percentage point by (see our 2004 results).
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error-for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters–is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for full-week results are available for Platinum Members.
Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large (see methodology). Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. While partisan affiliation is generally quite stable over time, there are a fair number of people who waver between allegiance to a particular party or independent status. Since the November 2008 election, the number of Democrats in the country has declined while the number of unaffiliated voters has grown.
Our baseline targets are established based upon separate survey interviews with a sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding three months (a total of 45,000 interviews) and targets are updated monthly. Currently, the baseline targets for the adult population are 35.3% Democrats, 32.9% Republicans, and 31.8% unaffiliated. Likely voter samples typically show a slightly smaller advantage for the Democrats.